July Stakes Preview With NMW Racing

This weekend we look to the July Cup at Newmarket which is a Group 1 six furlong race for horses of both sexes aged three and older. Three year old male entrants carry 9st 2lb and older male entrants carry 9st 8lb. The three year old fillies carry 8st 13lbs and older females carry 9st 5lb.

 

The history of this race goes back to 1876 and is the oldest contested 6 furlong race in the UK. It is considered one of the most gruelling tests of combined speed and stamina in racing and is usually contested by Royal Ascot sprint winners, so the field is high quality. 7 of the last 10 winners have previously raced at Royal Ascot with the Commonwealth Cup and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes providing routes into this race. Runners in the July Cup usually either go on to Deauville for the Prix Maurice de Gheest or appear later on in the season to contest the Haydock Sprint Cup, something to bear in mind if you want to get involved in ante post markets.

 

With no draw bias, pace mapping is key to where the winner may lie in this race. The field usually splits into groups on either rail and a horse getting a good early position on the rail or one being able to stay comfortably on the pace usually is a tactic that pays.

 

Favourites have not fared so well in recent renewals with only 2 winning from the last 10 races.

 

Historically, a horse dropping from a last time out race over 7 furlongs has fared well but the 2026 line-up  consists of entrants who either raced last time out over 5 or 6 furlongs. There are a number of battles within battles in today’s race as horses meet each other once again after coming out of the same races at Ascot. Let’s look at the 2026 entrants.

 

ALMERAQ (OR 119) currently around 5/1

A highly progressive colt who displayed immense grit to win the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes beating SATONO REVE by a nose and also had COMMANCHE BRAVE well beaten in behind. Hails from the family of former July Cup winner Dream Ahead. He is unbeaten this year having won on season debut at Salisbury beating PRINCE OF INDIA in the process.

 

BIG MOJO (OR 115) currently around 10/1

The 4 year old son of MOHAATHER has had 2 starts this seasonand has not really given a proper account of himself after securing the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last year. Was ridden by William Buick for that race and is booked once again for the ride today, perhaps a significant move in itself. His better performances have been from races where he’s tracked the pace and will need to run a similar tactic today if he’s to win. Maybe a bit isolated on his own as the early pace looks set to be on the opposite side of the track.

 

COMMANCHE BRAVE (OR 113) currently around 22/1

Irish raider from the Donnacha O’Brien yard who won the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh as favourite on season debut with Ryan Moore in the saddle and comes into this race off the back of a 7th placed effort in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes which saw him struggle when the pace lifted. Billy Loughnane takes the ride today and it’s hard to see how COMMANCHE BRAVE can make up that difference in such a short turnaround on both ALMERAQ & SATONO REVE.

 

COPPULL (OR 110) currently around 33/1

Finished 8th in the Commonwealth Cup behind VENETIAN SUN and DIVISION and like COMMANCHE BRAVE it’s hard to see how he’s going to make up the difference in such a short space of time. He raced at Newmarket on the Rowley course last September in the Middle Park stakes, finishing a near 3rd. Is drawn around the right horses and could get a decent tow into the race but I feel his best performances have come on flatter tracks. He gets the 3 year old weight allowance and is probably the best longshot angle in this line-up as trainer Clive Cox is no stranger to the winners enclosure at Newmarket and had been in good form of late.

 

DIVISION (OR 113) currently around 8/1

The Wathnan Racing entrant and 2nd representative from the Haggas yard has travelled strongly in each of his 3 races this season but has had a few problems in getting out of the stalls cleanly. I think he’s maybe drawn on the wrong side of the track today which may mean he has to set his own fractions up front which is not his style. No doubt he has ability but there are still a few things to iron out in his running if he’s going to take a Group race of this calibre.

 

DOUBLE RUSH (OR 110) currently around 8/1

Won the Wokingham at Ascot by a head and has been a very good class 2 handicapper throughout his short career. Carrying the older horse weight and stepping up significantly in class is a bit too much in my mind and would have to be around 33/1 for me to even begin considering.

 

MISSION CENTRAL (OR 115) currently around 6/1

MISSION CENTRAL looking for 5 wins on the bounce after victory in the King Charles III Stakes at Ascot. Had BIG MOJO well beaten that day with a timed to perfection run that saw Ryan Moore take the spoils in the final yards. Is stepping up to 6 furlongs today, which is a concern and will probably have to take up a more front running position and give an easier tow to something that will likey take a stalking position in behind. Aiden O’Brien has 5 wins in this race, 4 of them with 3 year olds so he knows how to get this tricky job done.

 

PRINCE OF INDIA (OR 102) currently around 66/1

I can’t see anything to consider this one,  based on what he’s done so far. A punchers chance if he starts but in my opinion not worth considering. The price probably should be double, even if the yard are in good form, this is a proper Group 1 race and I feel will be way out of his depth today.

 

QUINAULT (OR 109) currently around 33/1

QUINAULT loves Newmarket and has had 3 races this year in weaker Group races all of which have seen him fade in the closing stages. I love this horse for his heart but has been found wanting on each occasion when trying to get a seat at the very top table. His best days are behind him now and in my mind, we have to be looking elsewhere to find the winner.

 

SATONO REVE (OR 119) currently around 9/2

If SATONO REVE can’t get the job done with Ryan Moore on board at Ascot then I have to think that jockey Christophe Lemaire who is booked to ride will struggle on a course he barely rides being mostly based in Japan. Faces ALMERAQ again today after narrow defeat in the QE II and on a more difficult track than he normally faces at Sha Tin, I can’t back him at the current price but imagine he’ll be in tge equation at the end.

 

VENETIAN SUN (OR 115) currently around 7/2

Gets all the allowances possible as the only 3 year old filly in the line-up but only just did enough in keeping SPICY MARG at bay in the Commonwealth Cup and I think ALMERAQ recorded a quicker time in his victory over the same distance. I think historically in match ups between boys vs girls,  the boys come out on top as generally they are bigger and stronger and the girls get somewhat intimidated. I can see VENETIAN SUN in the top 4 but she won’t be carrying my money.

 

VERDICT

I think this is a battle between MISSION CENTRAL and ALMERAQ today. Members were on the O’Brien 3 year old for the win at Ascot and I feel bad for deserting him here today but the fact that he  will have to set the pace along with stepping up in trip, it’s too much. I think the play here is ALMERAQ who looks set to powerfully stalk and move later when they hit the rise and at current odds of 6/1 looks good to maintain that unbeaten run.

 

Verdict – ALMERAQ each way 3 places currently 6/1

 

NMW Racing