2025 Grand National Preview

The Randox Grand National Saturday 5th April 16:00 AIntree

With Cheltenham behind us, Aintree often creeps up quickly. But the Grand National is
never truly forgotten. It’s a race that stops the nation, with millions tuning in from around
the world to watch 34 horses battle for a £500,000 winner’s cheque and a place in horse
racing history.

With such a large field, picking the winner is one of the toughest challenges in racing.
However, thanks to stats, trends, and key insights now available to punters, we’ll do our
best to find the winner in this blog.

Key Stats/Trends

Age
Unsurprisingly, the demands of the Grand National favor younger legs—9 of the last 11
winners were aged between 7 and 9. The only exceptions were the 11-year-olds Auroras
Encore (2013) and Pineau De Re (2014). The last 10-year-old to win was Ballabriggs in
2011.. So with that said I’m ruling out HEWICK, MINELLA INDO,
THREEUNDERTHRUUFIVE,BRAVEMANSGAME,COKO BEACH, APPRECIATE IT,
CHANTRY HOUSE, CONFLATED, IDAS BOY, ROYAL PAGAILLIE and CELEBRE
D’ALLEN

Rating
Another strong stat is that 9 of the past 11 Grand National winners were rated between
146 and 160. Notably, the two 11-year-old winners in this period had the lowest ratings.
This further narrows the field, ruling out DUFFLE COAT, GRANGECLARE WEST, NICK
ROCKETT, and last year’s winner, I AM MAXIMUS. The latter also falls into another
category—only one of the past seven winners of the previous year’s Grand National has
gone on to win the latest renewal, that being Tiger Roll in 2018-19.

Weight and Runs
Naturally, being a handicap, weight is a key factor. Nine of the last eleven winners
carried between 10st 3lb and 11st 5lb—but since all remaining contenders fit this
criterion, we need to dig deeper.
A strong trend emerges when looking at experience: ten of the last eleven winners had
at least nine previous chase runs. This rules out IROKO, HYLAND, SENIOR CHIEF,
STAY AWAY FAY, and THREE CARD BRAG.
Another key factor is form—nine of the last eleven winners had at least one victory
earlier in the season. This eliminates BROADWAY BOY, INTENSE RAFFLES,
HORANTZAU D’AIRY, MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, HITMAN, and MINELLA
COCOONER.

With the field now narrowed to just six runners, we looked at class. Seven of the last
eleven winners had previously won at graded level, which removes MONBEG GENIUS,
FIL DOR, and PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS from contention.
While I’m fully aware that Stumptown has yet to win at graded level, he fits into another
key trend—six of the past eleven winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out,
with two of them having competed in the Cross Country.

Verdict
Yet again, this year’s renewal looks tricky, but after analyzing recent trends, we’ve
narrowed it down to three runners, all of whom have solid chances.
Stumptown leads the Irish charge, and his claims are clear. He races off the same mark
as his impressive seven-length romp at Cheltenham, and with the blinkers returning, he
should be primed for a big run.
Kandoo Kid has been trained specifically for this race all season, and his connections
have made no secret of their confidence. He won the Coral Gold Cup on his first start
since undergoing wind surgery and showed a real liking for these fences when finishing
a solid third in last year’s Topham on soft ground.
Beauport is another strong British challenger with serious credentials. Returning to
chasing for the first time since November, he was last seen over fences scoring by a
remarkable 31 lengths in the 3m5f Berkshire National. He has also proven himself at a
high level over hurdles this season, placing in both a Grade 1 and a Grade 2. One of
only two horses in the field with assured stamina, he stamped himself as a serious
Grand National contender by winning the 4m2f Midlands National on heavy ground.
While going left-handed is a concern, he has plenty of positives on his side today.

Tips
Stumptown 0.5pt Win 8/1
Kandoo Kid 0.5pt E/W 20/1
Beauport 0.5pt E/W 25/1