September 2021 Horses To Follow

This horse is no stranger to the winners circle, but he has yet to win since the horse moved from Joseph O’Brien to Les Eyre.

There has been signs that Les hasn’t been sent a plum from the young Irish maestro as Fame and Acclaim managed a 13th of 30 in the Hunt Cup and has shown similar encouragement in races at York and Newmarket. However it was his last race at Ayr which suggested we need to be keeping an eye out for him in the near future. Settled out the back he travelled well but as he tried to find his way through a wall of horses, he was constantly switched by Lewis Edmunds and when he did find his way through he was squeezed and ended up a never nearer 7th of 10, beaten only 3 odd lengths. It didn’t tell the whole tale and the pound he was dropped was a nice present.

A mile looks his trip and all bar very quick ground looks ok, so he should be placed to good effect in the next few weeks.

He did have an entry in the big Class 2 handicap on Saturday at Ascot, but isn’t in the final decs, but it is an indicator Les Eyre thinks that highly of him.

Royal Patronage has won his last 3 races including the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York and the recent Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket. Needless to say his profile dictates he won’t be much of a price wherever we see him next. He has an entry for the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster (Group 1) I expect the merits of his Royal Lodge victory will divide opinion and it wouldn’t surprise me if his price becomes uneasy in the betting given there will be different interpretations of his Royal Lodge performance. 

In the immediate aftermath of his Royal Lodge success the TV analysts’ chosen narrative suggested Godolphins’ Coroebus lost it rather than Royal Patronage winning it. I would agree Coroebus is very exciting having the potential to be just about anything but some of the sound bites from Nick Lucks immediate assessment on Racing TV seemed to did a small injustice to Royal Patronage who deserved huge credit for his performance.

No doubt Coroebus’ final furlong was a good deal slower than Royal Patronage but it was still the third fastest final furlong of the 7 runners. His ears were pinned back, he didn’t wander off a true line, stick his head in the air or any other telltale sign of quirkiness so I’m inclined to think he finished a tired horse having paid the price for a very fast seventh furlong rather than a horse that gave it away thinking on the job. It’s all well and good showing a gear quickening from the front and in doing so Coroebus demonstrated he has a great deal of ability but at the end of the day it was a 1M contest that Patronage came out on top. Royal Patronage’ final 3 furlongs as a whole were quicker than those set by Coroebus.

From a form perspective Royal Patronage now has plenty going for him. If we revisit his Acomb win and the races leading up to it. Noble Truth had won a C3 Newmarket Maiden beating RU Ehraz by 2 lengths. Ehraz won an Ascot maiden by over 4 lengths on his next start which takes some doing. When the pair clashed again in the Acomb itself Noble Truth confirmed his 2 length superiority albeit they finished 4th and 5th respectively in the 5 runner contest. Noble Truth then won the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Listed level and was beaten under a length at Longchamp in Group 1 company on Sunday. I think it was generally regarded that neither Noble Truth or Ehraz turned up for the Acomb and perhaps chosen tactics would now be reconsidered but my interpretation is that they ran close to form allowing that they are still progressing race to race. Their performances were probably downgraded in order to explain Royal Patronage making all the running to win as a 25/1 outsider but in reality it’s likely Royal Patronage is just a very smart, as might be Dubawi Legend and Imperial Fighter from the Acombe (2 more for your trackers) 

Further evidence of a strong form line comes via Masekela who ran in the Royal Lodge. This colt had finished a short head behind current 2000 Fav Native Trail at Newmarket before winning a 7F Listed contest at Newbury beating the Roger Varian trained Bayside Boy. Bayside Boy went one better next time, upsetting the odds on Royal runner Reach For The Moon in the Group 2 Champagne stakes. 

I can’t see any reason to knock Royal Patronage at this stage but there is a vibe that Coroebus was the horse to take from the race. Undoubtedly they both rate as two of the more interesting 3 year olds for next year. One would imagine all roads now lead to the 2000 Guineas for them. They both hold entries for the Vertem Futurity (Doncaster Group 1). Should they both line up there I’d understand punters siding with Coroebus to reverse the Royal Lodge defeat. Personally I couldn’t be too bullish on who beats who I would almost guarantee Royal Patronage goes off the bigger price.

The Royal Lodge was a 7 runner contest where they went a moderate early tempo; Field size depending it’s likely they’d be going quicker at Doncaster on a stiffer track usually run on softer conditions than the Royal lodge is. Should they meet in the 2000 Guineas there will certainly be more of an early pace. 

Perhaps Coroebus has a sexier profile representing Godolphin. Visually his mid race performance will have got punters up off their seat but for me Royal Patronage has less questions to answer. He dominated a Group 3 from the front over 7F and won at the first time of asking stepped up to 1M. Royal Patronage has more runs under his belt but is actually the slightly younger horse being an April foal. I’m not surprised to see Coroebus ahead of him at around a general 10/1 for the Guineas but If ante post is your thing I would suggest Royal Patronage is better value with 20/1 available currently. 

I’m not recommending a bet as such just offering an opinion of where I view the value to be and why I’d have them closer in the betting at this stage. On pedigree I dont think Perfect Power is likely to get 1M. Coroebus has stamina doubts until he confirms otherwise. Royal Patronage comes out better than Bayside Boy and Reach For The Moon on form

 As a final pointer, Coolmore expects big things having added Wootton Bassett to their classy stallion roster at great expense. The sire has a growing reputation and Royal Patronage is one of many exciting horses to have come from him.

 

ED CULHAM TIPS

HAMISH

Trainer: William Haggas

Last run: 04/09/21, Kempton, September Stakes (Group 3), 1m4f, 1^st/5

Future entries: 16/10/21, British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

Hamish produced a brilliant comeback display after 442 days off the track to take the Group Three September Stakes at the beginning of the month. He was engaged in a mighty battle with rival Hukum from well over 2-furlongs out at Kempton, but at the finish Hamish looked as though he had won with something to spare. Considering the class of Hukum, that must go down as a fantastic performance and the form has been significantly boosted by Hukum’s demolition of the field in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot this weekend.

It’s clear that Hamish has had his problems, but trainer William Haggas clearly holds him in the highest regard. Last season he again returned after a long absence and was pitched straight into the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he ran creditably for fourth. This season he was among the favourites for the Ebor at York, only to be withdrawn on the day of the race due to the ground. Hamish appears most suited to a soft surface and an autumn campaign was probably always on the agenda.

He is set to line up in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day in two weeks time. The ground there should be ideal for him and while he hasn’t run over a trip beyond 1m6f, the way he has shaped when winning over that trip suggests 2 miles should be within his compass. Currently he is around 5/1 for the race at Ascot, and if he comes on for his Kempton reappearance, he could emerge as a big threat to recent Prix du Cadrain winner and 6/4 favourite, Trueshan.