2025 Lincoln Handicap Preview

 

As you will see below, he is an absolutely fantastic tipster who has produced nearly 190 points profit in the last 2 seasons operating at a huge return on investment of 22.96%.

 

 

He is also profitable to Betfair SP with 113 points profit in the last two seasons. 

 

 

He is as professional as they come, leaves no stone unturned and everyone is in for a real treat this flat season.

 

Below is the preview he has produced for tomorrow’s Lincoln and it is work you will receive for the next 6 months by signing up for £60. for the whole flat season (until 31st October).

 

Win, lose or draw tomorrow though, it is always about the long term profit and as his results show over the last two years, he proven and established.

 

 

 

Well here it is, the 2025 flat racing season gets truly underway this weekend with the meeting at Doncaster on Saturday and from this point onwards until the end of October, I will be looking forward to providing racing tips to subscribers of my service which can be found amongst the excellent stable of full-time tipsters on the Tipsters Empire website.

Truth be told, I have really enjoyed my winter hibernation from the daily grind of form study and deadlines. I’m approaching the 2025 season with renewed energy and humble gratitude for the fantastic opportunity to get back in the saddle to make some money for my already growing number of subscribers once again. Your support is truly appreciated and it makes a huge difference to my life.

The Saturday meeting is referred to as The Lincoln meeting and evolves around The Lincoln handicap which is a race run over a straight mile for horses aged 4 years and over and is a fantastic example of a “cavalry charge” race.  This race has been run at Doncaster since 1965 but the history of the race goes back to 1849 when it was referred to as The Lincolnshire handicap. This race also holds many special memories for me of my late grandfather, as it was always an exciting discussion in the house on the day and the walk up to the local bookies never seemed to require a coat, spring was almost always, in the air.

Before we start the analysis,  here’s an interesting fact – only 1 winner of The Lincoln from the last 20 races has won next time out.

Question – How do you go about dissecting a cavalry charge of 22 runners with most entrants having no recent form and with most making their seasonal debut?

Answer – we look at trends to discern a profile of past winners.
Let’s look at some of the more significant ones.

Over the past 11 years 9 winners have been aged 4 or 5. So for me I’m going to rule out DUAL IDENTITY, ORANDI, BERINGER, SEAN, TWO TEMPTING, LATTAM, FANTASTIC FOX, TOIMY SON and last year’s winner MR PROFESSOR, leaving 13 runners.

8 of the last 11 winners carried between 8st 12lbs and 9st 4lbs. So for me, this is a significant data point and rules out APIARIST, MAGNUM OPUS, WHIP CRACKER, GALERON, MIDNIGHT GUN and THUNDER RUN, which leaves 7 runners.

9 of the last 11 winners returned to the track off a 135+ day break. Being well rested and laid out for this race appears to be a significant fact amongst recent winners but all 7 runners remain on the list. They are – ORNE, OLIVER SHOW, GODWINSON, ALPHA CRUCIS, NATIVE WARRIOR, DASHING DARCEY and OLD COCK.

Conditions at Doncaster at the time of writing currently state that the going is good to soft and not much rainfall is forecast before the off. Doncaster has one of the best drainage systems amongst the UK courses and with wind and a bit of sunshine between now and the race commencing, it looks like the ground will be good or there abouts. All 7 would appear they prefer conditions to be on the firmer side with perhaps the exceptions of GODWINSON and DASHING DARCEY who both have performed on good to soft or softer conditions.

There is no discernable draw bias at Doncaster over this trip but high numbers have not fared well and most recent wins/places have come from the middle numbers. Perhaps something to bear in mind.
However, interesting fact – the last 139 5 year olds drawn 17 or higher have not produced a single winner so I’m striking out ALPHA CRUCIS.

I’m going to remove ORNE as he is ridden by a claiming jockey and they have a terrible record in this race, there has been just 1 winner from 68 claimers in 25 years.

Which leaves the lucky pin to select the possible winner from these 5 runners.

OLIVER SHOW – Positives – Jockey has has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 rides and has experience of winning in a large field of runners.  Does best work when held up, a tactic that historically works well in this race. Negatives – trainer did not have a winner at course over tge last year. Horse wins have been on all weather tracks.

GODWINSON –  Positives – Trainer has great record in this race. Horse is proven on good to soft ground. Trainer/Jockey combine for 28% win over past year in flat handicaps 10 wins & 7 places from 36. Jockey rides distance well. Negatives – wins last year came later in season. Drawn quite low in stall 3.

NATIVE WARRIOR – Positives – is 1st appearance since gelding op. Owners Wathnan Racing are all about the limelight and the big occasion. I have a theory that this year, their efforts will be focused each weekend into grabbing the headlines. Negatives – price is a bit skinny and top 3 in market don’t tend to fare well in this race. Trainer doesn’t have a lot if success at the course. Principle jockey for Wathnan racing, James Doyle has chosen or been ordered on Midnight Gun.

DASHING DARCEY – Looking through the form of DD, I just don’t see anything special worth considering as a selection, is a bit of meh performer, doesn’t start races very well but does go on all going. Last year at Ascot he got a bit swamped in a big field, there’s too many doubts in this one in my mind and not for me.

OLD COCK – Positives – firstly I love the breeding line of this one. Sired by Calyx out of a Dam sired by Galileo. Is lightly raced and a proven early season performer. Trainer Ed Bethell is 4 wins 7 places from 15 handicap races at course in last 12 months. Few jockeys ride 1 mile better than Callum Rodriguez with 32% win strike rate at distance. CR combines with trainer for 19 wins and 20 places from last 75 hcap races. Is drawn well in centre, Is carrying bottom weight. Trainer commented how well he has grown into his frame over the winter. Negatives – trainer stated he wouldn’t want it too soft and likely to be pulled if ground softens.

So after checking the prices my conclusion from my above musings is :

GODWINSON – 14/1 generally available – 0.5 point each way 6 places

OLD COCK – 11/1 generally available – 0.5 point each way – 6 places

Both look to have solid claims on the information available, bearing in mind any improvement from any of the runners over the winter will be information privy only to the yards and connections, but they both look “value” to me.

Good luck

NMW Racing