This is the biggest field we’ve had for this handicap, albeit there’s only been two previous runnings, but Richard Hannon’s runner, Dark Thirty (13/2 at time of writing), made an impressive seasonal reappearance here last time out and he may well make good use of that race fitness today. This horse has a 4-18 record in his career and after a bit of a dip in the second half of his 2yr old season and start of 3yr old season, he’s started to improve nicely. He won a decent 0-95 handicap at York back in May last year before finishing a good 3rd (beaten 3L by Quinault) in the Bet265 Handicap on the July course at Newmarket in July. Another noteworthy performance came on the July course again when he won a 0-90 handicap under top weight, before ending the season with a solid 6th of 16 runners in a 0-105 handicap at Ascot when not best placed throughout.
His last run was at this track in a 0-100 handicap over 6f. He won the 18 runner race, getting the better of Baldomero by just under a length having raced on the pace virtually the whole race. In my opinion he won with a little bit up his sleeve and watching the race back, it looked like he was starting to go away again at the finish. He’s gone up 3lb for that near length success which does leave him on a career high handicap mark but it’s worth noting that not only did it look like he won with a bit to spare, but the RPR of 105 that he recorded that day was 5lb better than he’d ever run to, therefore a 3lb rise could be lenient. That last run was his first start for 194 days and given he needed his first couple of runs at the start of last season, there could well be another step forward with that last run under his belt. Today’s step back up to 7f looks a positive as he was going away again at the finish over 6f last time out and his two wins last season both came over this trip. He’s tactically versatile in that he can go forward or get a toe into the race, he looks pretty straight forward and could well have another win or two in him off this sort of mark. There’s every reason to think he should be bang there again today with race fitness on his side and for a yard that have started the season very well.
In terms of the opposition, I had Ed Walker’s runner, English Oak, down on my tracker for this season as he looked a big improver and one that would make a top handicapper as a 4yr old. I’ve only gone against him today simply because he’s a big built horse so it’s possible he may need the run having been off for 210 days but also bigger horses can sometimes struggle in the dip here on this track but he’s certainly one to watch this season. Noble Dynasty for the boys in blue looks interesting, he’s certainly got class but off this high mark, he loves fast ground (there is the chance of some heavy showers) and the yard are actually yet to win a handicap so far this season, I’m opposing him. Final Watch could go well at a price, he likes it here, goes well for Ghiani, is back on his last winning mark and won’t mind any rain that falls.
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16:10 at Newmarket KING OF CONQUEST @ 7/1 generally, 0.5pts ew
This looks a puzzling race to try and solve but having gone over it several times, I’ve ended up landing on King Of Conquest (11/2 at time of writing). This gelding is 5-14 in his career so far, improving really well during the first half of 2023 which included landing a 16 runner handicap in Bahrain before winning the Howden Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago. He made it 3 in a row when edging out Francesco Clemente in the Festival Stakes (listed race) at Goodwood and that horse is now a group 3 winner. Although he’s not won since, he ran a good 2nd in the Foundation Stakes (listed race) at Goodwood in September, only beaten half a length by experienced group performer My Prospero. He was upped to 1m4f for the first time in the St Simon Stakes (group 3) over today’s CD and I thought he ran a cracker, finishing 3rd of 6 runners and beaten less than 2L. The two that finished ahead of him that day were Hamish & Al Qareen who have come out and finished 1st & 2nd in the John Porter (group 3) at Newbury last month and that race is usually a good form line for this race, albeit the selection did actually run in it.
His last run was over in Bahrain in the Al Khalifa Cup (listed race) over 1m4f. He finished 4th of 10 runners, beaten 4L by Isle Of Jura. That wasn’t a bad run at all as he was having to give weight to all bar one in that field (that other rival finished a well beaten 8th) and he possibly found the ground a little too firm for his liking. Obviously in terms of opposition this is a much tougher assignment but he’ll improve with that run under his belt and he should find ground conditions more suitable, especially if there is rain around as forecasted. Admittedly he doesn’t hold flashy entries like most this field do but this time last season he was recording RPR’s of around 116 and a repeat of that level would make him tough to beat here. He’s unexposed over this trip (0-2 over 1m4f but has proven he stays), he handles cut in the ground if the rain does arrive, he tends to be at his best this time of the year and James Doyle was the last jockey to ride him to victory; I think he’s got a great chance.
Just quickly touching on the opposition, Time Lock is the deserved favourite as she is getting weight from her rivals today and won a group 3 nicely last season over this CD. I’ve only gone against her as she’s not been seen for 195 days, she’s never won fresh and can be keen so she could be a little vulnerable. William Buick has picked the other Appleby runner, Castle Way, and he has a good chance on the form of his group 3 won on the July course here and 2nd in the Voltigeur (group 2) but he bled last time out having been gelded during a break so he’s a very risky proposition on that evidence. Naqeeb is superbly bred and won a nice handicap over 1m6f last seen but was beaten favourite in a listed race next time out. He needs another big step forward to win this which is possible but is likely to improve on whatever he does today. Astro King has a big question mark over his stamina and the 9yr old, Outbox, is certainly up against it facing younger less exposed rivals.
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17:25 at Punchestown IT’S ON THE LINE @ 7/4 generally, 1pt win
In what’s always an intriguing spectacle the hunters chase, I thought Emmet Mullins’s horse, It’s On The Line (2/1 at time of writing) will prove very tough to stop. This horse is 3-8 in PTP racing and has an even more impressive 6-12 record under rules over fences, one of those wins being this race 12 months ago in which he’s a bit of an outlier in terms of past winners of this race as he became the youngest winner since 2011 as the older horse tend to have a better record. Having won an open ptp at the start of the season, he went on to win his first couple of race back under rules, firstly at Down Royal and then at Naas where he beat Billaway by a head but was arguably better than the narrow winning margin suggests as he idled and got lonely in front. He ran a cracker to finish 2nd in the Challenge Cup Open Hunters Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, beaten less than a length in his first try over that long a trip and the front pair pulled nearly 6L clear of the rest so it was a smart performance.
His last run was at Aintree in the Foxhunters over 2m5f over the national fences and he relished that different challenge. He won the 22 runner race, getting the better of Bennys King by over 4L. The jockey went for different tactics on him that day as he gave him a much more patient ride out towards the rear of the field but he jumped well for the most part and made eyecatching headway approaching 3 from home. Although he came off the bridle soon after, he responded well for pressure and kept on and once hitting the front after the last, he pulled clear readily. That was over 2m5f and he steps back up to 3m today which I think can only be a positive given he possibly came off the bridle sooner than expected but that just showed things were happening a bit quicker than the horse wanted and he’s much better at this trip in my opinion. Obviously in all his wins this season the ground has either been soft or heavy and he won’t get that today but he won this race on a yielding track 12 months ago and won a hunters’ chase on good to yielding so I don’t think the ground will inconvenience him. As long as he’s come out of that Aintree race fine and in the same form then I can’t see him not winning this race.
Just touching on some of the opposition, Billaway won this a couple of years ago for Willie Mullins and he’s a top class horse in this sort of company, he’ll love the ground but he was slightly disappointing when last seen and he’s now a 12yr old (oldest winner of this race was 11yr old). Lifetime Ambition is likely to be the main threat, he’s ultra consistent and had an impressive win last time out in preparation for today’s race but the selection possibly just has a bit more class than this horse. Famous Clermont is a horse I like, he won Foxhunters at Aintree a couple of years ago but hasn’t quite been at that level since and judged on RPR’s, he’d certainly need to find a good few lbs in order to beat It’s On The line.
