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Draw Bias

There are two mains reasons for a draw bias, either the distance run is shorter, i.e. when racing around a bend or there is a rail and/or ground advantage. For example, racing next to a rail can help keep a horse straight in the closing stages, or certain sides of tracks have less undulations or tend to be firmer.

When running around a bend it’s straightforward that those closest to the inside are running a shorter distance. What many don’t understand, certainly when it comes to horse racing, is just how much further the outside runners are having to travel. In athletics, think of the amount of stagger the runners start with when competing in a 400 metre race. Obviously this is exaggerated due to athletes staying in lane but even the 1500 metre races have an arched line to start. It’s clearly significant considering horse races are frequently run over a mile or more and won by inches.

Pace Bias

Pace bias and draw bias are strongly linked. Certain courses favour front runners, this happens for many reasons. Sometimes it’s due to bends being taken slowly and the pace lifting afterwards – think Ripon and Haydock, sometimes due to stiff finishes – such as Pontefract and Carlisle, or sometimes simply a short home straight – for example Chester. Most races that have a significant draw bias will have a pace bias too.

When draw bias and a pace bias combine it can lead to a big advantage. It’s not a straightforward enough link to apply to all races at a course as a general rule, as races over different distances at the same track, have different trends. There are a number of factors that negate the bias and occasionally even reverse it! (Number of runners, strong or soft pace, or the difference in ground conditions.) Below is a look at 3 tracks where the draw can be vital (and a look at one race in particular, which highlights the potential for change.)

Chester

If the bias is very strong it will still apply even in smaller fields – think Chester 5 furlongs. For races over Chester’s 5 furlongs a low draw is vital, bookies are aware of this, as are trainers – as when drawn wide there are plenty of non-runners. For races over 6 furlongs, 7 furlongs and 7 and a half furlongs at this course the draw is still considered important. However, the stats suggest you can win from anywhere and I wouldn’t be put off if drawn wide – depending on the likely pace of the race. There’s often a cutaway in the straight at Chester and this helps those drawn wider as they have the comfort of mind in thinking they will get a clear run in the straight and can still ride a race if the drop in, rather than rush to the front as soon as possible.

The inside draw over 5 furlongs at Chester is one of the most well known biases, it makes sense as the race is almost all around a bend and the first 3 stalls are heavily favoured as a result. However, if a hold up horse is drawn low that big plus becomes a huge negative. The jockey has a choice of rushing the horse up and running closer to the pace than usual or sticking to the preferred style and trusting for luck. With the outside draws making a beeline for the rail, that can mean those held up and drawn low have no chance. At most racecourses jockeys have to race to their lane until the orange pole after around 100 yards but this does not apply at Chester. 5 furlong sprinters are basically flat out all the way and they don’t tend to come from hold up positions at the best of times – unless they are very classy. Chester 5 furlong sprints are almost all handicaps and these horses don’t possess the extra gear required to sweep late.

Chester’s low draw bias is often quoted by the media, and it’s true for some distances but very misleading for others. Even when obtaining a low draw you still need the right type of horse to make use of it.

Ascot

On the straight course, it’s possible to win from either side (or even the middle). It’s more important to follow the pace, which is almost always the larger group if splitting in big fields. Regarding pace, it’s very difficult to lead throughout on Ascot’s straight course, probably due to the high class competition. This lack of pace bias links with the lack of draw bias.

On the round course, the proximity of the first bend plays an important role. In big fields, low numbers are favoured over 1 mile 2 furlongs but high numbers over 1 mile 4 furlongs. In 1 mile 2 furlongs races the first bend comes up quickly while 1 mile 4 furlongs there’s longer to the bend, allowing horses to find their positions in time without going wide and giving up ground, or rushing forward and using up too much energy. On Ascot’s round course it’s difficult to make up ground from the back and runners often win when racing prominently, probably due the short home straight and stiff finish.

Ascot has no draw bias, a low draw bias and a high draw bias dependent upon the distance run. It’s a good example of the necessity to examine races individually rather than lazily apply a collective rule.

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Lingfield, turf course

On Lingfield’s straight turf course it’s vital to be drawn high. There’s a “golden highway” up the stands side rail and whoever wins the battle for this frequently stays there throughout, a high draw and a fast start on a front runner can be enough to win the race. It’s such a pronounced advantage that even horses travelling better in behind the leaders often fail to go past when pulled into the middle of the track when trying to challenge late on.

Conversely, when racing on the round course, runners very rarely cross to the stands side rail and as such there is little draw bias over longer distances at Lingfield. This is reversal of Ascot’s bias of needing to be drawn high or low on the round course and the straight course having no draw bias. The “golden highway” on straight courses also applies to Epsom, Haydock and Ripon.

Northumberland Plate – Newcastle

Trends change. Newcastle replaced their flat turf course with Tapeta and have since had 3 Northumberland plates. Of those to finish in the first 5 places each year, there have been 13 horses drawn in double figures and just 2 from the lower draws. This race used to strongly favour those drawn low and who raced prominently and it’s still reported in the media each year that this is the case but the change in surface has led to a different type of race and early indications are that a high draw is no longer the disadvantage that it used to be. 3 renewals isn’t enough to say this is categorically true, but if you wait until it’s proven any advantage gained by this knowledge will be mitigated by everybody knowing and the market reacting accordingly.

This race is considered in isolation as it’s rare that Newcastle have a 2 mile handicap with 20 odd runners of a high class.

Overall

Draw bias definitely exists and should be taken in to account for flat races, depending on the severity of the bias this can be in small fields as well as big fields. Each horse in each race should be considered individually rather than a sweeping statement such as “stall 1 wins at Chester”. The likely pace of the race, the preferred running style of the horse (and of the opposition) and the ground all play their part. Biases change depending upon ground and pace and should be one of a number of factors to consider when finding value bets.

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