Looking forward to the All Weather season with some interesting stats.
I’ve been exploring some interesting angles for the forthcoming All Weather season that I’d like to share with you. As you may or may not be aware, I take a statistical approach in my study of a race card.
I was keen to find out if horses came out of certain Sires would they have a natural genetic advantage on certain All Weather tracks and if they did, could they be exploited in finding winners. I began researching frantically but quickly found such is the nature of horse bloodlines, they are very fluid, forever changing and markets quickly adapt. This coupled with the subtle differences in the UK All Weather tracks made trawling through the bloodlines quite an arduous task with no definite conclusion apparent.
So I decided to subtly change the angle of approach and decided that I would instead look at profitable Sire results based on distances on the All Weather for the past two years (from Jan 1st 2016 to be exact). I chose this date as I was hoping to take advantage in the upcoming season in any “new” bloodlines (it didn’t always work out like that though, the classics are classics for a reason). I also limited the qualifiers to a price of between Evens and 12/1. This was reasoned because I personally won’t back a horse odds on and horses that win over 12/1 can distort results. I went for sires that preferably had a 30% win strike rate and returned a nice profit. With the exception of the first 5 furlong study, I excluded Southwell and Dundalk for the purposes of this exercise.
In conclusion, I’ve kept this pretty basic and not drilled down into other areas and horse racing stats being the devil they are can be skewed by even one result or just one super horse that keeps on winning. Sometimes the dataset may not be big enough but in those instances, we maybe ahead of the market and maybe able to get some nice prices. One things for sure, some names have cropped up more than once which should suggest they do prefer All Weather conditions over most. With the likes of super sires like Dubawi, maybe picking the right spots can secure that ever elusive profit? Ultimately it’s all interpretation and context but hopefully we may have given ourselves an edge in the market.
I’m really excited by the start of the All Weather season and will be monitoring the performance of these Sires closely over the next few months and maybe updating the list as we go along. I hope you have found this helpful or at least an enjoyable read.
Wednesday’s qualifiers under these conditions would be
14:40 Newcastle – Qianlong
16:10 Newcastle – Summerghand
18:45 Kempton – Misty Spirit