The Betfair Chase
The Betfair Chase is always noted as a regular winter highlight at one of my local tracks. Won last year by Cue Card who has dominated this race in recent times winning 3 of the last 4 renewals. He beat a somewhat suspect field in heavy conditions last year and although conditions have once again turned in his favour he does have a much better field to beat on Saturday. We take a look at the contenders below:
Cue Card (rated – 168) Current best price – 9-4 William Hill
Cue Card won this race last year and has made this race his own with three wins from the last four renewals. He hasn’t been in the same form since his victory last year and there is a question mark coming into this. He fell in the Charlie Hall before the race really began and that does in essence leave him coming into this without a run. You have to respect his record in the race but given the odds he isn’t the sort of horse I would want to be backing. He could win and I’d be happy to let him win at those odds.
Bristol De Mai (rated – 160) Current best price – 11-8 Skybet
Bristol De Mai has a very progressive profile and will love the forecast conditions. He won the Charlie Hall last time out and the winning margin does in essence under-play just how well he travelled in the race. Lacks a bit of speed when it comes to the finishing kick however given the conditions I don’t think that will be an issue. He’s rock solid in my opinion and will be tough to beat.
Outlander (rated – 166) Current best price – 6-1 Bet365
Outlander beat a very strong field last time out at Down Royal. That form entitles him to plenty of respect and at a much bigger price (bigger than he should be) he does look leniently priced. He too will enjoy forecast conditions however is he really good enough to win a Betfair Chase. I’m not certain and I’d be willing to overlook him on Saturday.
Tea for Two (rated – 164) Current best price – 10-1 Skybet
Tea for Two is a likeable horse who seems to enjoy upsetting the odds. He won the Betway Bowl last year beating Cue Card in a tight finish. He should be fine on the forecast conditions and his price certainly offers value. I suspect he may need a few to under-perform however that isn’t out of the question and you can never dismiss him out of hand.
Traffic Fluide (rated – 153) Current best price – 20-1 Bet365
Traffic Fluide seems to have a lot to find in this company, not only does he have it all to do at the weights but he isn’t certain to stay the trip. Time will tell I guess, he could improve for it but even so this race looks a step too far.
Shantou Flyer (rated – 154) Current best price – 66-1 Skybet
Tough to make a case for Shantou Flyer, he is held on form by both Cue Card and Bristol De Mai. 66-1 just about sums up his chance in this race.
How we bet:
Not really my sort of a betting race but if my hand was forced this is how I’d view the race. It is tough to split Cue Card and Bristol De Mai, Cue Card has the race form and will be primed for it but Bristol De Mai has a very progressive profile. At the prices I’d be willing to play my luck a little at something overpriced. Tea for Two fits the bill, if Cue Card falls or doesn’t turn up then suddenly 2nd place looks wide open and at big odds Tea for Two is worth an each way punt.
Tea for Two – 0.5pts E/W