Dewhurst Stakes With The Snout
This Saturday is a huge day in the racing calendar. We have the beginning of the National Hunt season taking place at Chepstow, we have one of the biggest handicaps of the year taking place in the form of the Cesarewitch, and we have a fantastic Group 1 taking shape as the Dewhurst Stakes will showcase the best of the 2 year old generation at HQ.
The Dewhurst is one of the most notable Group 1’s of the year, with the race being regarded as one of the main trials for the following season’s classics. Expect the winner of this to be thrust into one of the leading positions in the 2000 Guineas market. Let’s get straight into it.
Let’s talk about the odds-on jolly, Expert Eye. This son of Acclamation is 4/6 to win this race and do we think that is justified? Well, we have limited data to go on as is usually the case with these 2 year old races. He won his debut nicely but only as he should do considering the 2nd is now rated 87, but he clearly showed his level when winning the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood at a price of 7/4. He travelled with real swagger to power away to a 4 and a bit length victory ahead of Zaman, Mildenberger and James Garfield. James Garfield was a G2 winner following this run and Seahenge, 5th behind Expert Eye,was a G2 winner next time up. Clearly 2 YO form can be very erratic so substance of the form can’t always be taken as literal, but just from watching that race there is evidence that Expert Eye isn’t an ordinary 2 YO.
Is there anything that can beat him? Well, yes, there is. For a horse to be priced 4/6, we are implying that he has a 60% chance of winning. In betting terms, you have to ask yourself, would you bet on a horse having a greater than 60% chance of winning, or would you rather have the 8 other horses running for you at an implied odds of 40%? In most cases, mathematically, it is the latter. But are there any standouts on form that we would take as a single bet to beat this solid fav?
The 2nd fav is Emaraaty, trained by John Gosden. He certainly set a nice impression visually, but I don’t think he did anything spectacular and times and formlines would back this up. He looks shocking value at the 4/1 mark. Sure any John Gosden horse deserves respect, but I just cannot get excited about the 4/1 price.
The AOB pair look much more interesting. As the racing press seem to love saying, “ignore his horses at your peril”. Although US Navy Flag would certainly have the better form considering he was a Group 1 winner last time up and has the assistance of Ryan Moore on board here, Seahenge was seriously impressive last time out. He looked absolutely clueless, but showed a serious turn of foot to beat a decent field in a Group 2 at Doncaster. If he has learned what his job is since then perhaps he can surprise a few people here. He would be of interest at 10/1.
Well, I have a huge amount of time for Cardsharp. He is consistent, tough, straightforward, and shouldn’t be discarded. Especially in a weak race. But the rest do look like having plenty of work on here. Expert Eye created a really dominant impression last time and being completely honest, I hope and expect that he wins this race. But I will probably have about three odds-on racing bets in my lifetime as it is just something that I do not feel comfortable with and I don’t think it is a betting race for me. The two AOB horses Seahenge and US Navy Flag would take interest but this is definitely a no bet race and we shall sit back and watch. Good luck if you are punting.