Big Race Preview with DG Tips
The Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes promises to be an absolute thriller this year. Down on numbers this year but in my opinion up on class. A 10 strong field are set to take part in this intriguing contest, the market as like last year is headed by an Aiden O’Brien trained horse in the form of Churchill. Mightily impressive last year beating everything that was put in front of him it is unsurprising that the markets have him very short. Air Force Blue let the O’Brien fan club down last year at a similar price and you can imagine Aiden wants to right that wrong. For me however he is far too short, even on his best form from last year he doesn’t deserve to be that short. All that means however is that there lies great value elsewhere. We take a look at some of runners below:
Barney Roy (Stall 5) – (Rated 115) R.Hannon/J.Doyle
I have talked Barney Roy up for a long while now after he bolted up at Haydock. Backing him for this very race soon afterwards it is fair to say I am fairly happy with the value I got. Saying all that I still think there is great value in his price. He comes into this with bags of potential and clearly is improving massively with every run. This step back up in trip and a proper group 1 pace will all suit his style of running and for me this horse has a huge chance. Godolphin have wanted a classic contender for a while now and with this horse I believe they have one.
Al Wukair (stall 7) – (Rated -) A.Fabre/G.Benoist
Al Wukair is the unknown quantity in the race, he has done little wrong and you have to respect his trainers comments. Fabre believes he will be right there and I can’t really argue against that, what I can argue against is that he tends to get a bit far back in his races and the form of his most recent win isn’t good enough to win this. We have no idea how he will travel and we have no idea how he will handle a straight track like Newmarket. All those factors make his price look very skinny and I’d be inclined to avoid him.
Dream Castle (Stall 10) – (Rated 110) S.B.Suroor/S.De.Sousa
Another Godolphin horse who ran very creditably for 2nd in the Greenham is Dream Castle. That was only his 2nd start however he shaped as if he would be better suited by shorter than further so for me I see this 1m as a negative. A proper group 1 pace should help him settle as will a rail run with the first time hood applied however there will be others staying on stronger in my opinion.
Eminent (Stall 2) – (Rated 111) M.Meade/J.Crowley
Eminent ran out a very convincing winner of the Craven. A mile that day seemed perfect and given that Meade admitted he wasn’t spot on we can upgrade the performance. I have two worries about this horse, the first of which is his draw. Position at grade 1 level accounts for a lot and drawn out wide Crowley will have to be at his best to gain a good position. Secondly it does worry me that this horse seemed to hit a flat spot half way through the race. Yes he quickened up once he hit the rising ground however giving away first run in this field is asking a lot. It would be a great story if he won and I am a big fan of Meade as a trainer however I think he could be more a Derby horse than a Guineas.
Lancaster Bomber (Stall 4) – (Rated 117) A.P.O’Brien/D.O’Brien
Lancaster Bomber is vastly overpriced in here. If Churchill is 5-4 then this horse should be around 8-1. We know he loves rattling fast ground and looking back at last year’s form this is the type of horse that is always under-rated by the bookmakers coming into the classics. He was put in as a pacemaker in the Dewhurst however Spirit of Valor takes on that mantle tomorrow and that will mean Lancaster Bomber gets to run a proper race. He is undoubtedly over-priced however a place does look to be his best hope at a push.
How we bet:
For me there is one bet to have in here and that is Barney Roy. He’s progressive, will be suited by the trip and pace and looks a real high class horse to take the favourite on with.
Barney Roy – (0.5pts E/W) 4-1 is widely available.