What factors do I take into consideration when tipping with DG Tips

How does star tipster DG Tips make his selections

A truly remarkable amount of big winners and huge prices! So what’s his secret? He gives you an exclusive insight into how he goes about finding his winners! You don’t want to miss this! Take it away DG!

So what’s your secret?

It is a question I get asked time and time again and its one I’ve always struggled to answer because there are so many variables involved with horse racing as a sport. In truth I could spend a day answering this question and still have more areas to mention. There are quite simply too many factors to list down. Every race differs and every race has its own variables. What I have done instead is attempted to narrow it down to just my five main factors that I take into consideration with every race. This is just a brief list and I may expand on each point in future blogs.

First and foremost is The Jockey.

It is surprising to me the amount of people who totally dismiss jockey selection. For me it is becoming one of the most important factors to take into consideration when tipping a horse. I say becoming because this is an area I have perhaps treated with leniency in the past. We all make mistakes and this is an area I have made countless mistakes in over the past few years. Time and time again I have put up horses I fancy from a handicapping perspective despite the fact the jockey booked for the ride isn’t someone I would want on my side. You can probably already guess the answer, but I would say at least 8 times out of 10 the horse doesn’t put up the performance I felt it would do. It’s a horrifying statistic but it’s one that really does show just how important jockey selection can be.

Well handicapped horses.

These really are both a value tipsters dream and nightmare. Sometimes you call it right and your 20-1 tip flies home like a 6-4 favourite. Other times your 20-1 tip performs like their odds suggest. This is by far and away my favourite part of tipping. Delving into the form, assessing all the weights and finally coming to a conclusion about which horse you deem to be the best handicapped horse in the race. It’s a somewhat long process however, our results prove that it is worth it in the long run. Handicaps provide punters with the best value and it is well worth all the extra hard work when a big value tip comes in.

DG Tips Members have enjoyed many winners since June 2015!
DG Tips Members have enjoyed many winners since June 2015!

Ground

Ground is a huge factor when it comes to tipping. Royal Ascot this year was an absolute nightmare because we didn’t know if we were coming or going with the weather and the ground played havoc with my tipping all week. A lot of my fancies going into Royal Ascot had only performed on good ground and the issue I had was ultimately trying to decide which horses would go on the rain softened ground. You can research into pedigree and ground preferences, leg action and what not but is that really a platform to give a tip with any real confidence? Personally I like to see some solid form on the ground before I am going to tip any horse. With the more experienced horses you can usually decipher what ground preferences they have and factor that into the race they are pitched.

Course/distance form.

This is a massive factor when it comes to tipping AW racing. Don’t get me wrong I know it is a major factor with all horse racing however, the AW season is in full flight and it is an area I specialise in so it seems a good example to use. Some horses simply love the AW, Stuart William’s Realize is a prime example of an All Weather horse. Switch this horse to the turf and he just isn’t the same horse we see on the AW. Give him 7f’s around Lingfield and you won’t be far away from a winner. Certain tracks suit different types of horses and knowing which horses go at which tracks is vital when it comes to tipping. Distance is another crucial element to take into consideration when tipping; I love a horse stepping up trip. Speed really is everything when it comes to horse racing and if a horse is performing well over 6f’s but we know that they will stay further, we can suggest that when they do step up trip they are going to be very competitive. An added bonus is that you usually get a good price about a horse stepping up in trip; two examples this year have to be Saigon City who was performing well over a mile but was stepped markedly up in trip by his new connections. He has one prep run and then got the job done at a huge price by winning a big handicap at York over 2m. Wall of Fire is another, he was running respectably over 1m-1m 2f however they stepped him up in trip and suddenly they have a world class horse on their hands who has won his last two races with a scintillating final furlong burst.

Price

I have left this one until the end because that is exactly where it comes into the equation. You can do all the research, have your tips written out and prepped however, if the price isn’t right then you need to leave it alone. Value is everything in the tipping game, whether you tip a horse up at 40-1 or side with an 8-11 shot it doesn’t matter as long as you deem that price to be good value. It is very easy to get side tracked by big prices or similarly staying clear of favourites but there really are only two questions to be asked at this point in the process. Is the horse your idea of a winner? (i.e. do they tick all the boxes) Does the price represent good value? If you answer yes to both then the horse has all the attributes to be given as a tip.

There are obviously a lot of other factors to take into consideration such as draw, pace and the trainer which seems to be quite a relevant factor given the recent news regarding the trainer Jim Best. As I stated at the start of the blog, this is just a brief summary and the reality is far more in depth. I do however hope that it has given you some insight into how we work and what we take into consideration when assessing a race.

Does it pay off?

Of course it does, just check out DG Tips results graphics from Day 1, and the last 6 months to date. You’d be mad not to try DG Tips out if you haven’t already. How about a free week? Or if you fancy a month you can join for just £7!

Thanks,

DG tips.

10 thoughts on “What factors do I take into consideration when tipping with DG Tips

  1. On the subject of Value there is a potential stumbling block I am starting to encounter more regularly when using online bookmakers. Following some success from horses that drifted in the market and ended up winning my BOG status has been revoked with some bookies and that has lead to further issues with regards to having bookies close my accounts or severely limit my line stakes. As my 1pt betting amount is in excess of £100 it is very difficult to find bookmakers who will take the full risk when I try to place an early bet, assumedly because the market has not matched enough money to balance the odds accordingly. Without delving too much into your own bankroll do you encounter issues like this on a regular basis and how do you combat the problems of being a successful punter?

    1. Hi Sam. Snout here! Plenty of thoughts on this and it probably deserves it’s own article. It is an issue of the bookmaking industry in it’s own right, but whilst the arguments in that respect continues, for me you have to be clever about placing your bets and there is no right or wrong way to do this. For me, I spread my stakes around quite significantly. I use the exchange to do a significant chunk of my betting when there is ample liquidity. Most of my selections are out around 8.30pm and in a lot of cases you can get a half-decent amount on the night before without too much issue, especially for the bigger meetings. I would generally try and get as much % of my stake on with an online-bookmaker, and from there top up on the Exchange, assuming I can get a near enough price which in the most part you can.

      I would avoid having sizeable bets with certain firms at fancy prices as you are only going to cause yourself harm with getting on in the meantime. Try and spread your bets and although that may mean taking a point less in some cases it is generally a more intelligent way to bet in the long run. I remember Neil Channing talking about this on a podcast once, speaking of the Charles Brynes gamble. He said that if you placed a big bet at 12/1 about one of the horses that won at 13/8 then you had a much bigger chance of being restricted than if you took the 6/1 that was available a couple of hours later. Bearing in mind the SP was 13/8…

      There are certain firms where if you are even half a decent punter you are going to struggle to bet long term, and I would include in that Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Stan James, generally the smaller firms.

      In summary, the Exchange is your friend. Use it to ensure you are betting as consistently as possible and that means topping up after getting as much as you can on with your high street bookmaker. That may mean sacrificing BOG but unfortunately those are the types of concessions that successful punters must plan to be without at some point.

      Also, I would add to this, there are plenty of people on social media that seem to show off about not being able to get on which I have never understood. There are plenty of ways to bet proficiently in the long term. Don’t let those make you think otherwise. It may mean that you cannot take the 20/1 from Betfair Sportsbook and everywhere else is 8/1, but that is because 20/1 should never have been available. Put that kind of thing out of your head as you will never be able to consistently bet at those fancy prices! But the 8/1 available at Paddy Power and the 7.5/1 available on the Exchange may still be serious value and thus you can still be profitable in the long term.

      I’m sure a full blog will follow on this.

  2. Encountering the same issue but only with £25 per point. However with bookies I’ve been with for a long time I.e over a decade, when I used to be a weekend accumulator backer. I have no issues!

    1. If we are naming names then 365 and Coral have been my most reliable. Victor revoked my access so quickly and I can barely get more than £10 on a bet with Paddy. Similar issues with Ladbrokes and Will Hill who often aren’t close to the top of the market for best prices. Shame the exchanges are quite weak from a value perspective and calculating an each way bet across 2 markets isn’t always an easy task either. Perhaps time to try some of the lesser known names who might be grateful for any small piece if the market share.

    2. Should also add the long term ones I’ve taken thousands from over the past 12 months. The ones who restrict only a 100

  3. Ive encontered the same problem but I think their is ultimately not much you can do. I still have 60% of my accounts open. One way to prolong account is for example of you want £100 on a 9/1 shot instead of putting 1 X £100 bet on with 1 firm put 5 X £20 bets on with several firms eyebrows more likely to not be raised. Rest winning accounts so if you have won alot recently with one firm leave it a while. Try to look a bit ‘muggy’ put some ridiculous football ACCAs on and maybe spend a few quid on the casinos just to make you look like you dont know what your doing. I bet on the exchanges now. I will still use my accounts abit but use the exchanges because I dont really want to deal with firms which essentially dont want me to win. Black Type a new bookmakers are trying to lead the way by saying they will not ban winners but ultimately you get better odds on the exchanges (DGs tip Saigon City went off I think 66/1 on Betfair 40/1 industry price I think?) liquidity is the only problem but if you can get within 75% of DG’s quoted prices then still a good bet hope this helps 🙂

  4. Hi Sam

    Unfortunately, bookmakers don’t like winning punters and that is one of the biggest problems that we face getting money on.

    There are two ways to overcome this firstly as you are aware some bookmakers will allow you to win more money off them than others will and it’s probably best sticking to them. From your comments, you have already highlighted them. This is simply because it can be a pain mainly due to the time it takes to get money back out of accounts that bookmakers have heavily restricted or closed after just a handful of bets.

    If you wish to stick to betting with bookmakers and taking early prices then the only way around it is to get family or friends to open accounts for you. But there are problems with this at times.

    Firstly you need to be able to trust them as they have your money but secondly unless they allow you to have access to the account. When prices first become available they may not be able to get the bets on for you due to work commitments or family life so you are in know better position than you was before you got restricted.

    Also, the problem with this way is in time you will lose your bonuses and the accounts will become heavily restricted or closed so you then have the hassle of getting the money out and hoping that the person that opened the account for you transfers the money back to you. Plus that person knows how much you have won or lost.

    The second option is to go to Exchange betting this way you have full control of your account and your money. A couple of negatives is you don’t get best odds guaranteed and you can’t take any early prices as there isn’t any money in the exchange markets the night before.

    On the other hand your not going to get restricted and you don’t have the worry as to whether you will get your money back your in total control.

    It’s entirely up to you which way you decide to go once bookmakers have closed your accounts. Sometimes prices can drift from the night before and if the account that had the horse priced up the night before you had lost your Bog offer on then you are better off on the exchanges.

    As Tipsters we don’t know what each member’s situation is regards to bookmakers accounts.When we give a tip out we believe that the horse is the right price and deemed worthy of backing at their current price. I’m afraid the difficulties you find of getting bets on is exactly the same as what we go through and is all part and parcel of being a successful punter.

    I hope this little insight as helped.

    The Jumps Punter

  5. Hi Sam,

    From personal experience placing the ‘muggy’ bet as described above does help. It’s a painful way of doing it because you are basically pouring money back to the bookmaker but a little football ten fold to fairly small stakes, or with your 3/1 winner from the day before for example, does help.

    Otherwise the Exchange is the one. Commission is a down side, and you do lose the ‘value’ so to speak, but ultimately you can place the bet you want to place and in this game whether we get a 16/1 or 10/1 winner, I’d rather the latter at £100 stake than then former at £10 stake.

    Least it shows we are beating the bookie week in week out I guess.

    Maxi

  6. Some very helpful insights here from both tipsters and punters alike. I think to summarise the comments made so far: as you migrate from being a casual gambler into a longer-term investor you potentially have to sacrifice the perceived incentives by taking your business from the risk-retaining bookmakers to guarantee 100% of your stake is absorbed in the exchange arena. Similarities can be drawn from this with more generic areas of financial investment. With the lack of guarantees available to the savvy investor the main competitive advantage is utilising the strength of knowledge of the tipster against those within the betting circle.

    One thing I find most interesting from any tips I receive is the tipster’s perceived odds of a specific horse. I personally would love to see more of the team providing their own assessment of where they think a horse should sit in the market and how that equates to their likelihood of winning. I am by no means an expert but I wonder what % of casual punters placing a bet actually understand what the odds of a horse reflect in their chances of winning (i.e. a horse at 6/4 (decimal odds of 2.5) = 100/2.5 = 40% probability of winning). If you are able to consistently better your own interpretation of a horse’s value against the odds offered at the time then you are ahead of the market and stand a very good chance of being a long-term winner should those horses run to your perception of their form.

    1. Perceived value is a lot like beauty – in the eye of the beholder.

      The mistake most casual punters make is switching off whenever they see a 6/5 shot tipped up. Sometimes, they can be the biggest ‘value’ bets you’ll ever get because their truer price is nearer the 4/7 mark.

      So the first step to making any long term profit is not letting prices get in your head. As DG rightly says in his blog, it rates bottom of his concerns when tipping up a runner. Whether it’s 6/5 or 66/1, the key factor is whether you’re ahead of the layers.

      That brings us to the issue of getting money on. Evidently backing 66/1 shots attracts more attention than those 6/5 jollies. As has been said, spreading your custom around and using the exchanges is the only way to stay under the radar. The days of any kind of bookmaker loyalty (regardless of BOG) are long gone. They’re happy to take your losing bets but will drop you like a stone when you’re making consistent returns.

      So sacrificing some of your bottom line by going on the exchanges is, ultimately, the way to play the game. It can be a frustrating experience at times but this is a marathon, not a sprint.

      @TheTowerTips

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